Page 19 - Economic report 2020

the euro continued to weaken, as the war In 2021 and much of 2022, the euro
was expected to have a greater impact on the depreciated against the dollar.
Eurozone economy than on the US economy.
Added to this is the steep rise in interest rates
in the USA, which started earlier and has been stronger than in the EMU, encouraging investors
to buy US public debt denominated in dollars. But, since November, the swift increase in Eurozone
interest rates has led to significant appreciation of the euro which, by the end of the year, was
priced at $1.06, only 6% below December 2021 ($1.13/€).

The rise in oil prices in 2021 and part of 2022 was a consequence of the strong economic
recovery seen throughout the world and also the Ukraine war, after suffering a historic fall
during the toughest months of the pandemic (first and second quarters of 2020). The price of
oil reached $122.7 per barrel in June, a level
that had not been seen since 2012. Once the
initial uncertainty caused by the outbreak of OIL PRICES - $ per barrel of Brent
war was overcome, there was a downturn in oil Chart 1.7
prices towards the prices prior to the Russian
invasion (around $80/barrel).

The stock markets continue to fall,

except in the last months of the year.

The capital markets continued the downward
trend begun in 2021 for a good part of 2022, 17
as financial conditions toughened due to Source: Energy Information Administration of the US Government.
the central banks raising interest rates, with

IMF ECONOMIC OUTLOOKS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
Table 1.1
FORECASTS
2021 2022 2023 2024
Global GDP 6.3 3.5 3.0 3.0
Advanced economies 5.4 2.7 1.5 1.4
USA 5.9 2.1 1.8 1.0
Eurozone 5.3 3.5 0.9 1.5
Germany 2.6 1.8 -0.3 1.3
France 6.4 2.5 0.8 1.3
Italy 7.0 3.7 1.1 0.9
Spain 5.5 5.5 2.5 2.0
Japan 2.2 1.0 1.4 1.0
United Kingdom 7.6 4.1 0.4 1.0
Canada 5.0 3.4 1.7 1.4
Emerging and developing countries 6.8 4.0 4.0 4.1
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.7 3.9 3.5 4.1
Emerging European economies 7.3 0.8 1.8 2.2 External environment of the Andorran economy | I. International economy
Russia 5.6 -2.1 1.5 1.3
Developing Asia 7.5 4.5 5.3 5.0
China 8.4 3.0 5.2 4.5
India 9.1 7.2 6.1 6.3
Middle East and Central Asia 4.4 5.4 2.5 3.2
Latin America & Caribbean 7.0 3.9 1.9 2.2
World trade (goods and services) 10.7 5.2 2.0 3.7

Source: IMF, July 2023.