Page 25 - Economic report 2020

Forecasts point to weak FRANCE. MAIN MACROECONOMIC
growth in 2023 and 2024, AGGREGATES - Interannual variation rates Table 2.1
but rule out recession.
2020 2021 2022
Components of demand
The forecasts published by the IMF, OECD Private consumption -6.6 5.1 2.1
and European Commission predict French Public consumption -4.1 6.6 2.5
GDP growth of around 0.8% in 2023 and Gross fixed capital formation -6.8 10.3 2.2
1.3% in 2024, much lower percentages than Domestic demand
for potential growth in the French economy, without inventories (a) -6.1 6.7 2.3
and one tenth below the estimates for the Inventories (a) -0.1 -0.6 0.7
Eurozone. All components of demand are Exports of goods & services 16.9 11.0 7.1
expected to be affected to different degrees Imports of goods & services -12.3 9.4 8.6
by the climbing interest rates, but the
possibility of economic recession is ruled out. Components of supply
Apart from the geopolitical situation, these Agriculture -6.1 -4.4 7.5
forecasts are still very dependent on the trend Industry -8.7 3.9 -1.5
in inflation and the behaviour of households Construction -11.7 6.7 -0.3
and businesses in this context. The constant Commerce, transport, hotels & -13.1 8.0 4.4
catering
strikes could also add uncertainty, but previous Information & communications -0.2 8.6 6.2
episodes of this kind have shown that although Financial activities -4.1 14.2 -0.6
the effects could be significant in sectors Real estate activities -0.3 1.5 1.1
that are affected directly (transport services, Scientific activities &
oil refineries, etc.) or even indirectly (e.g. professional services -6.7 6.9 4.8
accommodation services and catering), the Public administrations, health & -5.7 6.3 1.1 23
macroeconomic impact is usually limited. social services
Cultural, recreational & other -27.0 13.1 21.6
activities
Even so, note that the forecast scenarios
are subject to great uncertainty about the GDP at market prices -7.5 6.4 2.5
geopolitical situation around the war in (a): contribution to GDP growth at market prices.
Ukraine and the behaviour of prices, which will Source: INSEE (demand) and Eurostat (supply).
influence monetary policy.

III. Spanish economy

1. Main features of economic development in 2022

For 2022 as a whole, Spanish GDP at current prices grew 10% against the previous year. However,
in terms of volume, the economy recorded growth of 5.5%, identical to the previous year (+5.5%).
The upward trend in the GDP deflator due to rising prices – which has reached record levels for External environment of the Andorran economy | III. Spanish economy
the last four decades – explains this difference between the nominal and real variation rates.

The notable growth in GDP in the last two GDP grows 5.5% and approaches
years has enabled the Spanish economy to the level it was at before Covid-19.
approach the level of activity it was at before
the pandemic (2019), after the major fall
recorded in 2020 (-11.3%). But, although social and economic activities prior to the outbreak of
Covid-19 normalised in 2022, the rate of economic growth moderated as the year progressed